Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation

Waterbirds serve as important indicators of both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem health, making effective monitoring essential for tracking population health and identifying potential causes of decline. Drones have provided opportunities to overcome historic waterbird monitoring challenges, but the expertise and time required for manual image analysis creates a major bottleneck. Recent advances in deep learning-based object detection have enabled rapid, automatic detection of features in complex ecological imagery, though applications have largely been limited to single-species colonies, and practitioners lack quantitative comparisons of annotation time and accuracy across different levels of automation. We systematically compared four waterbird monitoring approaches using identical survey areas from Chester Island, a mixed-species colony in Matagorda Bay, Texas, in 2025: (1) traditional ground-based counts, (2) manual drone imagery-based counts, (3) computer-assisted counts using pre-annotations from an object detector with manual human verification (Human+ML), and (4) fully automated counts using object detector annotations (ML-only). We trained a YOLOv10 object detection model on manually annotated imagery of Chester Island in 2021 and applied it to the 2025 imagery. Manual drone annotation detected 6,530 birds in 40.5 hr and served as the primary reference standard. Human+ML detected 5,826 birds (89% of manual) in 7.7 hr, an 81% reduction in annotation time. ML-only detected 5,679 birds (87% of manual) in approximately 46 min, a 98% reduction. Ground counts recorded 5,868 birds (90% of manual). Detection generalized well across species while classification depended heavily on training data and morphological distinctiveness. The Human+ML workflow emerged as a practical middle ground, providing practitioners with empirical data to evaluate partial versus full automation strategies based on monitoring objectives.

Automated monitoring of insect pollinators in natural environments with insect camera traps and trained deep learning algorithms provides novel data for insect ecological studies. However, efficient and accurate image recognition analysis of the recorded images or videos is challenging, particularly for images containing small insects against complex backgrounds with diverse vegetation communities. Even when insects can be detected in images, identifying their taxonomy remains difficult, particularly in footage with low image resolution, light conditions, and distances from the plants, and in cases where insects appear blurry or only partially visible. In this work, we present InsectDCT, an AI-based pipeline for automated detection, hierarchical classification, and tracking of insects in footage of natural vegetation tested in different environments. The InsectDCT pipeline consists of three levels: insect Detection and localization, hierarchical taxonomic Classification, and spatio-temporal Tracking. In the first stage, insects are detected in time-lapse images or video recordings using the You Only Look Once (YOLO11) object detection architecture. Detection performance is improved using motion-enhanced images, which improve robustness in cluttered and 3 dimensional environments. The detector is trained on an extensive dataset that contains more than 60,000 images collected using camera traps deployed across a wide range of plant families and floral habitats. In the second stage, detected insects are classified using a hierarchical taxonomy-aware classification framework that covers 80 taxonomic groups. Classification is performed at multiple taxonomic levels, including order, family, and genus/species, allowing coarse and fine-grained ecological analyzes while accounting for varying levels of visual ambiguity. In the third stage, a multi-object tracking module is applied to high temporal-resolution image sequences and video data to associate detections of the same individual across time. InsectDCT code and all datasets are made publicly available. Author summaryInsects are declining worldwide, creating an urgent need for efficient methods to monitor their abundance, activity, and diversity. Traditional insect surveys often require extensive fieldwork and expert taxonomic identification, which limits the scale and frequency of monitoring. In this study, we developed InsectDCT, an artificial intelligence-based pipeline that automatically detects, classifies, and tracks insects in camera-trap recordings collected from natural and semi-natural environments. Our approach combines deep-learning methods for object detection, hierarchical taxonomic classification, and tracking of individual insect observations through time. Unlike many existing systems that are trained for a single habitat or plant species, we designed our framework using images collected across a wide range of flowering plants, camera systems, and insect groups. This makes the system more transferable to new ecological settings. The classifier can identify insects at multiple taxonomic levels and can return higher-level classifications when species-level identification is uncertain. We demonstrate that the pipeline can process large image datasets efficiently, including on low-power edge-computing devices such as Raspberry Pi systems. By providing both the software and the underlying datasets, we aim to support scalable, non-invasive insect monitoring and facilitate future ecological and conservation research.

Camera trap networks such as Snapshot Safari have generated millions of labelled wildlife images across Africa, enabling the training of deep learning models for automated species classification. However, deploying models trained in one African region to another remains poorly understood. To the best of our knowledge, this study presents the first systematic evaluation of geographic domain shift within the African continent for wildlife camera trap species classification, using the Machine Learning sub-field of Artificial Intelligence. We use three model architectures, each interacting with Snapshot Serengeti in a different way: BEiTV2is fine-tuned on Serengeti images as a supervised baseline; DINOv2 with FAISS uses Serengeti images as a retrieval index without any weight updates; and BioCLIP is a true zero-shot foundation model that receives no Serengeti training data at all. All three are then evaluated on two Southern African test sets, Snapshot Kgalagadi and Snapshot Kruger, as well as on locally collected wildlife photographs from Botswana. We conduct eight experiments covering in-domain baselines, cross-dataset transfer, data scaling, MegaDetector preprocessing, grayscale vs. colour image conditions, and per-species transfer analysis. This work provides the first empirical characterisation of intra-African domain shift across both supervised and zero-shot architectures, and offers practical guidance for conservation AI practitioners who need to deploy models across the diverse ecosystems of Southern Africa without collecting new labelled data.

O_LIMonitoring and limiting the spread of invasive species on islands requires efficient detection and population estimation methods. However, elusive species can be difficult to monitor using traditional methods, making autonomous approaches such as camera trapping and acoustic monitoring increasingly valuable. C_LIO_LIOn the island of Okinawa, Japan, the small Indian mongoose ( Urva auropunctata) threatens many native species since its introduction in 1910. Listed among the worlds worst invasive species, effective monitoring of U. auropunctata in Okinawa is critical. The Okinawa Environmental Observation Network (OKEON) uses camera traps to detect U. auropunctata, but success depends on precise placement. Though OKEON also includes a high-resolution acoustic monitoring programme, no audio classification model currently exists for U. auropunctata. Developing such a model could improve substantially our capacity to detect and manage the species. C_LIO_LIUsing sparse U. auropunctata vocalisations collected from camera trap videos, we built a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network distilled from a more complex model for classifying contact calls and alarm calls of U. auropunctata. Our distilled model performed similarly to the full model at detecting vocalisations from training data, but was considerably faster. C_LIO_LIWe applied the distilled classifier to [~]486 hrs of audio collected over eight years from southern Okinawa, where we successfully detected U. auropunctata a handful of times in each year of recording. In spite of strong model performance on test data, our model did not transfer well to unseen data, perhaps owing to the rarity of U. auropunctata calls and consequent small training dataset size, limiting its utility for ecological monitoring. C_LIO_LIPractical implication. The use of sparse audio data from camera trap videos to train an acoustic classifier had limited utility to detect the rarely vocalising U. auropunctata from passive acoustic monitoring data. We provide several recommendations for enhancing classifier performance to provide robust actionable insights into the distribution and spread of U. auropunctata, and aid targeted conservation efforts for Okinawas threatened biodiversity. C_LI

The US NEXRAD radar network has monitored the aerosphere over the US and its territories continuously since the 1990s and archived nearly 300 million radar volume scans. These data contain a wealth of information about the movements of birds, bats, and insects. Historically, this biological information was difficult to access due to the amount of data and challenges in analyzing it. In the last 15 years, fueled by computational and methodological advances, large-scale aeroecology research has blossomed. However, comprehensive analyses of the NEXRAD archive remain very costly. We collected measurements of biological activity from every volume scan in the NEXRAD archive--nearly 300 million data files total--to assemble a dataset of aerial biomass over the US from 1995 to 2025. The core data are vertical profiles, which summarize biological activity at different heights above the radar station for each volume scan. We also provide time series data products that aggregate vertical profiles to point measurements at radar stations across time. These data products can support a range of aeroecology analyses at significantly reduced effort.

Antarctic benthic organisms are highly diverse and play a critical role in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Despite decades of sampling, vast areas of the Antarctic continental shelf remain biologically unsurveyed due to logistical and financial constraints, limiting baseline knowledge essential for effective conservation planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) allow biodiversity to be inferred in the absence of biological data by linking benthic community patterns to environmental predictors. However, the resolution of the environmental predictors, particularly bathymetry, varies significantly between regions, casting doubt about how reliably SDMs can be used to predict into regions where only coarse-resolution data are available. Here, we show that SDMs trained on high-resolution data underestimate Antarctic benthic morphospecies richness by up to 18% when applied to aggregated coarse-resolution environmental data (and up to 50% when using satellite-derived ETOPO bathymetry). Using six systematically degraded versions of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and annotated seafloor imagery across three Antarctic regions, we evaluate SDM performance both with and without additional environmental variables. High-resolution bathymetry captures terrain complexity most effectively, but we find that the spatial distribution of richness hotspots and the median richness per cell remain consistent, provided models are applied at the same resolution at which they were trained. Our results suggest that while high-resolution bathymetry may enhance local predictions, coarse-resolution data may be more robust for regional-scale predictions, such as those used for Antarctic shelf-wide spatial planning.

Mosquito-borne diseases represent an escalating global health threat, driven by climate change, urbanization, and the spread of invasive vectors into new territories. Effective surveillance is constrained by a critical taxonomic impediment: the rate of specimen collection far outpaces the capacity of expert entomologists to process and identify trap catches. To address this bottleneck we developed MosAICo, an integrated AI-powered ecosystem for automated mosquito species identification designed for real-world, national-scale entomological surveillance. The system combines a standardized benchtop imaging device with MosAICo-Net, a deep learning pipeline enabling efficient and principled open-set recognition and uncertainty quantification. Trained and evaluated on 12, 499 specimens spanning 15 species collected across Italy, the model identifies seven priority vector species while explicitly rejecting out-of-distribution specimens. On a geographically stratified held-out test set, MosAICo-Net achieved over 90% accuracy on target species, and an AUROC of 0.96 for out-of-distribution detection. Field validation across 20 Italian surveillance sites confirmed these results: 94% micro accuracy on 1, 470 field-collected target specimens and strong agreement with expert manual counts ([Formula] = 0.66). To assess cross-geographic generalizability, the system was further evaluated on 118 Aedes albopictus specimens collected at the fringe of the species invasion front in Ghana: a 97.4% accuracy with only a single specimen escalated to expert review, suggests that MosAICo is well-suited for deployment in distant and epidemiologically critical regions. The system processes up to 82 specimens per image, matching expert throughput at constant speed regardless of taxonomic complexity. By embedding uncertainty-aware AI within a standardized hardware-software pipeline, MosAICo acts as a scalable force multiplier for public health entomology, freeing expert attention for rare, invasive, or ambiguous specimens that require human validation.

Early, precise, and non-destructive stress detection is essential for maintaining crop productivity, particularly in high-density plant growth systems like controlled environment agriculture (CEA), where manual monitoring is often impractical. Using plant motion as a proxy for growth and plant health, we demonstrate a method for early, non-invasive stress detection through quantitative leaf-movement analysis in lettuce and five other CEA relevant crops. Leaf-movement dynamics under stress were imaged with a low-cost, scalable Raspberry Pi imaging setup and quantified using a repurposed open-source motion estimation algorithm; Tracking Rhythms in Plants (TRiP). Our system detected stress-induced changes in leaf-movement within 1 hour of stress, with the timing dependent on the nature of the stress. Sustained reductions in leaf-movement coincide with decreased biomass accumulation. This approach offers a non-invasive, rapid, scalable, and cost-effective solution for continuous crop monitoring, with potential for application in both terrestrial and space farming CEA systems. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=138 SRC="FIGDIR/small/732190v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (54K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@19ee20eorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@b0804org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@3b3fa8org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1d04026_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG O_FLOATNOGraphical abstract:C_FLOATNO Quantification of leaf-movement dynamics as a high-throughput proxy for plant physiological status, enabling early stress detection and timely intervention to mitigate yield penalties in CEA settings (image made with biorender.org). C_FIG

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based image analysis can efficiently estimate fish length, but differences in devices, imaging conditions, operators, and AI models limit comparability among surveys. We propose a standardization framework that estimates a bin-specific error matrix from paired reference measurements and AI-derived lengths and applies it to standardize (correct) AI-derived length-frequency distributions. The Richardson-Lucy expectation-maximization algorithm was used, with the number of iterations selected via cross-validation. Simulations based on empirical length-frequency data from 110 species showed that standardization reduced relative bias and distributional discrepancy; median relative-bias and root mean square error ratios were below 1, and the performance was more affected by the amount of paired data than by the number of cross-validation folds. In real data from 957 Japanese jack mackerel, standardized AI-derived distributions approached human-observer histograms, although discrepancies remained in the range of 160-230 mm. The proposed framework provides a practical approach for improving the comparability of image-derived length-frequency data using paired calibration data, without retraining the underlying AI model.

Flower-visiting insect populations are declining since the 1990s, especially because of the decrease of floral resources in agricultural settings. Mass flowering crops can help increase resource availability, and plant breeding can be directed towards selecting varieties attracting more flower-visiting insects. This requires the implementation of an automated high-throughput phenotyping tool for assessing the attractiveness of plant genotypes to flower-visiting insects. In this study, (i) we present a procedure to take standardized images of sunflower heads with camera traps continuously at day and night in the field; (ii) we trained two versions of a deep learning model, named PolliCrop, to automatically detect and identify three classes of the main insects visiting sunflower on these images (non-Bombus bees, bumble bees, lepidopterans); (iii) we assessed and validated the ability of PolliCrop to correctly predict the true visitation frequencies of the insect classes on three sunflower genotypes; (iv) we presented two statistical approaches to compare the insect visitation frequencies between plant genotypes, one including weather variables, and the other one without. One PolliCrop version yielded satisfying performance to correctly detect the three insect classes. In particular, it correctly predicted the insect visitation frequencies on two sunflower genotypes in a range of {+/-}10%. The other PolliCrop version can be useful in certain contexts of images and objectives. PolliCrop can be extended in the future to other crop species by training PolliCrop on new images captured in these crops. The field experimental design to set up for comparing the attractiveness between genotypes is also discussed.

Premise: Rapid and accurate plant species identification is a critical challenge exacerbated by the taxonomic impediment. Although portable near-infrared (Micro NIR) spectroscopy represents a promising solution, the current absence of standardized protocols and a fundamental understanding of how critical acquisition and analysis parameters influence accuracy remain significant barriers. This study focused on the systematic optimization and validation of a comprehensive workflow designed to maximize the reliability of plant identification using this technology. To ensure methodological robustness across diverse foliar matrices, four vascular plant species were strategically selected as a representative test set to encompass morphological extremes, including significant variations in leaf thickness, pubescence, and surface texture. Methods: Using a portable spectrometer on herbarium specimens (exsiccate) of four vascular plant species, we systematically tested five spectral backgrounds, seven pre-processing methods, and four classification models. Subsequently, we optimized the number of spectral readings and evaluated the influence of the leaf scanning surface (adaxial vs. abaxial) on model accuracy. Results: The highest-performing combination was a Shiny Aluminum background, Second Derivative pre-processing, and a Random Forest model, which achieved a mean cross-validated accuracy of 99%. An average of just three spectral readings from the adaxial (upper) leaf face was sufficient to saturate model performance, proving statistically superior to other approaches (p < 0.001). Discussion: This study establishes a validated, high-accuracy protocol for plant species identification from herbarium specimens using portable NIR, offering a powerful tool for biodiversity studies. Direct applicability to fresh plants in the field requires future validation to account for the spectral influence of moisture variability.

The Southern Hemisphere is home to extensive forests of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), including in Argentina and the southern islands of Tierra del Fuego, which has been proposed as a potential climate refugium. This study presents the first regional time series of M. pyrifera canopy dynamics in Argentina using Landsat satellite imagery from 1985 to 2023. The forests analyzed support 247.61 km{superscript 2} of emergent canopy and are situated in the coastal waters of Argentina and a small portion of Chilean islands, with 4%, 28%, and 68% in the Chubut, Santa Cruz, and Tierra del Fuego A.e.I.A.S, respectively. The small portion of Chilean Islands are included as part of the Tierra del Fuego province analyses. Range limits were scrutinized, in part, using expert knowledge and multisatellite comparisons. Linear regression shows that between 1998 and 2023, 7.4% of kelp sites exhibited a significant trend in annual canopy area, with all observed significant trends in the positive direction. Partitioning by province boundaries, linear regression produces significant positive increases in kelp canopy area across all three provinces, although reassessment when longer temporal continuity is also warranted, where available. Observed seawater nitrate concentrations were high throughout the region (7-23 {micro}mol L-{superscript 1}), suggesting that nitrate availability was not a primary driver of canopy variability. However, positive relationships between kelp canopy and the Antarctic Oscillation suggest that regional climate variability--which alters sea surface temperature and other oceanographic conditions--may be exerting a strong influence on kelp dynamics in this region. These findings document relative stability of kelp forest area in Argentina over the most recent two and a half decades and provide preliminary evidence supporting possible increases in kelp area for the region.

While whole genome sequencing captures millions of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and hyperspectral imaging (HSI) enables non destructive plant phenotyping, integrating these modalities to link genotype to phenotype remains challenging due to their high dimensionality and non linearity. This study presents DeepPheno a deep learning framework that predicts SNP genotypes from HSI data, using model predictability as a proxy for genotype phenotype association. HSI data were acquired from 194 lettuce genotypes under field conditions. HSI data patches (20 x 20 pixels x 224 spectral bands) were used to train a hybrid CNN to predict the variant of a specific SNP. The framework was validated on SNPs with known phenotypic effects (anthocyanin, leaf serration, pale pigmentation), achieving high predictive performance (AUC ranging from 0.806 to 0.935), whereas models trained on randomly shuffled labels performed at chance (mean AUC {approx} 0.51). Extending the workflow to 50 randomly selected putatively neutral SNPs, most yielded low predictability, but two showed high performance (AUC > 0.76), suggesting uncharacterized genotype phenotype links. Explainable AI, including SHAP and Grad CAM, identified relevant spectral and spatial features driving these predictions, particularly the green and red edge wavelengths associated with pigment dynamics and leaf structure. These results establish a framework for understanding complex genotype phenotype interactions in plants and extracting these links from HSI data without predefining the exact trait values. It provides an avenue for high throughput trait discovery and description and extends the integration of image based phenomics with plant genetics.

The advancement in deep learning techniques has made Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) a powerful tool for the fully automated classification of zooplankton images. In this study, we systematically investigate how network selection, colour information and differences in imaging instruments affect the classification of zooplankton images by comparing multiple state-of-the-art CNNs on images of zooplankton and marine snow from the in situ Continuous Particle Imaging and Classification Sensor (CPICS), Video Plankton Recorder (VPR), In Situ Ichtyoplankton Imaging System (ISIIS), and the on-board Plankton Imager (Pi-10). With differences between models of 7.8 to 19% in F1-score, we find that model selection strongly affects the classification performance, with EfficientNetV2S showing the most reliable overall performance. Moreover, differences between model architectures are largest for the least abundant classes (<100 labeled images), which implies that when these are present, careful model selection is most beneficial. The high image quality of the Pi-10 strongly increases the performance for the least abundant classes compared to the other instruments. In addition, we find a significant correlation (r = 0.597) between ImageNet the performance and F1-score on zooplankton images, which implies that more generally, a model that performs well on ImageNet will perform well for zooplankton classification. Colour information increases the F1-score of the best performing classifier with 2.8%, but provides a stronger benefit (25% F1-score) for classes with <100 images. The overall performance increase of colour information is less than expected and questions the advantage of recording colour information for zooplankton.

Plant diseases remain a major challenge to global food production, and timely, accurate, and scalable detection of plant stress is critical to reducing these losses. Recent advances in digital imaging and artificial intelligence offer unprecedented opportunities for precision crop disease detection and management. Yet, existing plant disease datasets remain often fragmented across crop and disease systems, and are largely dominated by controlled-environment imagery. The lack of standardized, interoperable, and representative datasets limits reproducibility, transferability, and scalability of AI systems, thereby constraining their deployment in operational agricultural applications. Here we present LeafMD, an integrated multimodal plant disease dataset and benchmark resource that includes LeafNet 2.0, a large-scale multimodal digital image dataset comprising 255,855 image-text pairs across 37 crop species, 197 crop-disease classes, and 9 geographic regions spanning tropical, subtropical, and temperate agricultural systems. Unlike conventional datasets, LeafNet 2.0 integrates biologically grounded symptom descriptions with image-level annotations of early and late disease stages, enabling symptom-aware analysis of disease progression under realistic field conditions. We further introduce LeafBench 2.0 as part of LeafMD, a visual-question answering benchmark covering nine fine-grained plant pathology tasks, including pathogen classification, lesion characterization, symptom interpretation, and disease severity assessment. Evaluation across 16 vision-language models revealed substantial performance gaps between coarse disease recognition and fine-grained pathological reasoning, while agriculture-adapted models consistently outperformed several larger general-domain architectures on symptom-oriented tasks. Together, LeafNet 2.0 and LeafBench 2.0 establish LeafMD as a multimodal resource for developing disease-aware agricultural foundation models and studying fine-grained pathological reasoning in real-world environments.

Rock surface weathering is a critical element in the process of early soil formation, in which lichens are thought to play a significant role. Crustose lichens, with a large area of rock-surface contact, are generally considered more influential in rock weathering, while foliose and fruticose growth forms, with more developed three-dimensional structure and less rock-surface contact, are rarely considered in this context. Here, we test the extent to which all three growth forms contribute to granitic rock surface weathering in Maritime Antarctic ecosystems, by quantifying rock hardness beneath foliose (n = 2 species), fruticose (n = 2) and crustose lichens (n= 5). Our data confirm that foliose lichens reduced rock surface hardness by 9%, to a lesser extent than crustose and foliose lichens (40% and 31% reduction, respectively). To disentangle whether these effects result from lichen-induced weathering or lichen preference for pre-weathered rock, we also analyzed a dated deglaciation sequence on granitic rocks from the Morteratsch Glacier forefield in the Swiss Alps. At this location, the impact of crustose lichens on rock substrate hardness generally increased with time since exposure from glacial retreat and with lichen thallus size. We conclude that lichen presence on rock surfaces significantly reduces rock hardness, with crustose lichens having a greater impact than foliose and fruticose forms, highlighting the potential role of lichens of all three growth forms in driving substrate breakdown and shaping early-stage ecosystem processes in polar and alpine regions.

The impact of projected extinctions on global animal colour diversity remains unknown. Combining citizen science with self-supervised deep learning, we built novel representations of bird plumage colour patterning based on >125,000 museum specimen images covering 9,143 species. We demonstrate that losing currently threatened bird species will drive a disproportionate reduction in avian plumage diversity, with the most severe losses occurring in tropical and subtropical regions. Furthermore, while humans generally find non-typical plumage phenotypes more aesthetically attractive, threatened species are unexpectedly deemed less visually appealing despite their comparatively unusual plumages. Overall, our results highlight severe, imminent threats to the existing avian colourscape and raise critical questions about the future of animal colour diversity in a changing world.

Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species' range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 {+/-} 11.56 inds/100km2, while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 {+/-} 5.33 inds/100km2). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R2=0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R2=0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species' distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

ContextThe global diversity hotspot in Southwest Australia has >480 orchids facing increasing threats from climate extremes, fire and habitat decline. AimsTo develop effective and consistent tools for measuring climate impacts on productivity in a diverse urban orchid community. MethodsAnnual variations in flower and seed production for 17 orchids were determined using thousands of records over a decade with extreme climate variability. Key resultsRainfall deficits and temperatures in autumn, winter and spring increased substantially over 125 years. Seasonal climate anomalies reduced flowering and seed production for orchids, but this varied between species and seasons. These effects were summarised by climate response (CRI) and sensitivity (CSI) indexes. Early or late flowering species were most vulnerable to seasonal drought, and visually deceptive pollination preferred warm dry conditions. CRIs were strongly correlated with orchid pollination syndromes and flowering times. Effects on mycorrhizal fungi and pollinators were also observed. Extrapolating climate trends to 2100 predicted further impacts on orchid productivity (-5-40%). ConclusionsOrchid climate responses were diverse and deeply integrated with pollination, phenology, fire sensitivity and other key traits. ImplicationsResearch in an urban climate observatory produced a climate analysis framework that is likely relevant to many orchids and other biota.

High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has spread beyond birds to affect seals across the Southern Ocean and sub-Antarctic region, with southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) particularly devastated. The virus, likely introduced via spillover from infected migratory birds, has killed tens of thousands of adult seals and pups throughout most of their range, though Macquarie Island remains unaffected so far. We used twenty years of elephant seal movement data from the southern Indian and Pacific oceans to assess whether seal-to-seal transmission could spread HPAI H5N1 between breeding colonies, despite the vast distances separating them (Marion Island, Iles Crozet, Iles Kerguelen, and Macquarie Island). There was substantial overlap in seals' at-sea distributions during their winter post-moult trips, when seals travel for weeks at average speeds of 3.5 km/h. Two transmission pathways were examined: (1) terrestrial "stepping stone" routes, where infected seals could pass the virus between colonies during short intervals to remain infectious were feasible from Marion Island to Kerguelen but not from Kerguelen to Macquarie Island; and (2) at-sea encounters between seals, which occurred frequently enough to enable transmission. The findings suggest that once established at Macquarie Island, the virus could potentially spread further to New Zealand's sub-Antarctic islands and mainland New Zealand. While seal-to-seal transmission appears possible, we conclude this is unlikely. Nonetheless, understanding at-sea contact rates enhances knowledge of H5N1 epidemiology and demonstrates the value of combining long-term population monitoring with movement data to understand wildlife disease dynamics.